But then again, who needs render farms if the card speeds your rendering up so darn much?

-Craig

craiglhoffmanThis won't happen in the next years. The graphics-cards break in with their performance, when it comes to high-precission (32-bit-floating point) calculations. I know this, because I have implemented a fluid-solver on a GeforceFX using nVidia's Cg during my diploma-thesis. The performance of the CPU-variant was better than the optimized GPU-system. A friend of mine wrote a path-tracer. He implemented the same renderer for the GPU and for Pentium4 using SSE. He also couldn't verify, that the GPU is faster than a CPU. Even worse was the performance of a hybrid-tracer, which should utilize the best of both worlds. But the communication between the CPU and GPU was such a great bottleneck, that this version showed the worst performance of all three variants.
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But then again, who needs render farms if the card speeds your rendering up so darn much?
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I think that you can get some purty piccies from the latest/greatest cards, but they'll never catch up with software rendering simply because they're both moving targets. Really it's just all about moving certain calculations away from the cpu - and it's in the best interest of the graphics card companies to suggest they're better than a renderer on a cpu. That's simply not true(I believe at Siggie NVidia was boasting about an entire film like Monsters Inc or some such being done on Nvidia cards - whatta load) - it's all just number crunching after all, and when the basic algorithms change as new techniques come up, the hardwired graphics card solutions will be less useful. I think their strength lies on being truly wonderful for previs as you're working. Some of it really looks great. Someday the cheap bastards here will spring for some more current hardware and…oh wait, that's me…*cough*…
). Software gives you the ultimate freedom to code clever tricks any way you want without concern for a hardwired pipeline.
craiglhoffman
…but I am very excited at the prospect of doing acceptable quality renderings for visual development, Pre-Vis, SHOP shader development, or even for doing final images for a Kids straight-to-video animated movie on a laptop while sitting on the beach at Bali.
…but with the new character tools and pipeline issues in Version 6, Houdini could be in a perfect position for some guy doing the next “Veggie Tales” in his garage (or a loosely knit web of folks all over the world passing OTL's back and forth). Real time rendering would be a big boon to him.
-Craig